UK Degree Outcome Data: What the Numbers Really Show

Every year, UK universities produce one number they are very careful about: the proportion of students graduating with a First.

That number has been rising for fifteen years. In 2010, roughly 15% of UK graduates received a First. By the mid-2020s, that figure was pushing 40% at some institutions. The official explanation is that students are better prepared and teaching has improved.

The more honest explanation involves grade inflation, assessment redesigns, and competitive pressure to keep employers from downweighting your graduates.

The data tells a more complicated story.

What degree outcome data actually covers

Degree outcome data refers to the classification breakdown for graduates: the proportion achieving each degree class (First, 2:1, 2:2, Third, Pass, Fail) across a cohort, degree programme, or institution.

This data is collected and published at a high level by the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA). But the aggregated national picture obscures the variation that actually matters to students.

The more interesting data -- the subject-level, institution-level, and module-level breakdowns -- requires going further than HESA. It requires FOI requests.

What FOI data reveals about degree outcomes

Under the Freedom of Information Act 2000, UK universities must provide data on grade distributions when formally requested. GradeHack has compiled FOI responses from universities across the UK. Here is what the data shows.

First rates vary enormously by subject

A student in Creative Arts at one institution might find that 55-60% of graduates achieve a First. A student in Computer Science at the same institution might find the figure sits below 20%. These are not anomalies -- they reflect different marking cultures, assessment structures, and scaling practices.

For a deeper look at subject-level variation, see which university courses are easiest to get a First in.

First rates vary enormously by institution

Two universities offering the same degree can have First rates that differ by 20 percentage points or more. This does not necessarily mean one is a better university -- it often reflects different assessment designs and marking calibration.

Module-level variation is the most actionable piece

The aggregate degree outcome for a programme is the average of many individual module outcomes. But that average is misleading. Within a single degree, some modules have First rates that would surprise you on the high end -- and others have fail rates that would surprise you on the low end.

That module-level variation is the piece universities are least likely to surface. It is also the most useful piece for an individual student making module choices.

For context on how universities collect and structure grade distribution data, see university grade distribution: the data UK universities hide.

The grade inflation question

UK degree outcome data has been scrutinised heavily for grade inflation. The evidence is clear: national First rates have risen significantly faster than could be explained by improvements in student quality alone.

The Office for Students (OfS) has published analysis showing that universities with the highest First rates in recent years could not plausibly attribute all of that growth to student quality improvements. Some of the increase reflects genuine improvement in teaching and assessment support. A meaningful portion reflects assessment redesign -- moving toward formats that systematically produce higher marks.

This matters for students in two ways.

First, a First or upper 2:1 is less differentiating than it was a decade ago at some institutions. Graduate employers are aware of this, and a number of larger schemes now apply institutional context when evaluating degree classifications.

Second, it means the module-level data is more important than ever. A First rate that reflects genuine difficulty -- where 15-20% of a well-prepared cohort achieves it -- signals more than a First rate inflated by open-book assessment or generous marking.

How to use degree outcome data

The most practical application for a current student is to understand how your specific institution, degree programme, and individual modules perform -- not the national average.

Three questions worth asking:

What is the First rate for my programme? Your module handbook or course team should be able to provide this. If they will not, FOI is your route.

How does my programme's First rate compare to the university average? If your programme is below the institutional average, that is useful context about marking calibration. It does not mean you should not try for a First -- it means your margin for error is smaller.

What are the module-level distributions within my programme? This is the most granular and useful piece. GradeHack provides module-level FOI data so you can compare distributions across your optional module choices before you pick them.

For guidance on what degree classifications mean in practice, see how degree classification works in the UK and how degrees are graded in the UK.

FAQ

Where can I find degree outcome data for UK universities?

The Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) publishes aggregate data by institution and subject at hesa.ac.uk. For module-level data, FOI requests to individual universities are the only reliable route -- universities are not required to publish this voluntarily.

Is the rise in First rates evidence of grade inflation?

Yes, partially. The Office for Students and HESA have both published analyses suggesting the rise in First rates outpaces what improvement in student quality alone could explain. The degree to which this reflects genuine improvement versus assessment changes varies by institution and subject.

How does degree outcome data affect how employers view my degree?

For graduate schemes and roles with formal entry requirements, degree outcome data is increasingly used as context. Employers at larger schemes are aware that a First from one institution is not the same as a First from another -- and some apply contextual screening. A strong classification from a programme with lower average grades generally signals more.

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The national data gives you a floor for understanding degree outcomes. The module-level data gives you something more useful: a tool for making better choices before you graduate.

Access GradeHack's FOI-sourced module data and see what the numbers look like for your degree.